gasoline, food ... they say everywhere: everything increases. And you? Do you feel? How do you cope? Hause the price, this is the subject of the editorial 'Month.
Okay, I confess, I do not care particularly to talk about the price increase ... so I'll talk about something that has certainly price effect: the credit crunch and its effect on the Australian economy. Credit crunch ... you've probably heard this word many times, but you know how the crisis is?
| "Credit crunch for dummies ... [translated from the article by Cameron England July 30, 2008, www.news.com.au] Australian average, there are about a year, had probably never heard of "sub- prime, credit crunch or U.S. firms answering the picturesque name of "Fannie Mae" and "Freddie Mac". Twelve months after , they have become part of the discourse of commentators trying to predict if the economic gloom that swept the United States and continues to cause damage here and there, resulting in problems in Australia. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the names of the two largest mortgage companies in the U.S., guaranteeing themselves a more than U.S. $ 5.3 billiards (1 billiard = 1000 billion ... in English, 1 trillion), or 40% of loans . The U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve Bank this month announced it would lend the money the two, ensuring that they do not run - a scenario that could trigger a total collapse of financial system American. That's Fed may need to intervene is a sign that the crisis "subprime" which started on the U.S. in the middle of last year, is indeed still with us. When the crisis began, many experts have predicted that Australia does not strongly Souffir a U.S. slowdown given that our economy is "decoupled" from that of the U.S., for the economies of emerging countries Asians. asssure In spite of this, the Australian stock market has fallen below the American stock market over the past year. Last week, the NAB (National Australian Bank, Australia's second largest bank) has admitted it would make an allowance of more than AUS $ 830 million to cover the "bad debt" in connection with the U.S. credit market, amount to adding to AUS $ 181 million already set aside. The ANZ (Australian and New Zealand bank, the 4th largest bank in Australia, the last of the four financial pillars Australians ) has warned it would set aside $ AUS 1.2 billion to cover its exposure to real estate and investment firms brokers, among others. crisis "subprime" has emerged over the last year and quickly triggered what is now called the "credit crunch" overall. "sub-prime" refers to these loans available in the U.S. which require little or no initial capital, which were attributed to people with bad credit history and in some cases, no work.  Some of these loans had low initial interest rates that allowed people to take them, thinking they could refinance later before the real interest rate is established. There was also the belief among borrowers they could rely on the value of their property while home prices increased. House prices in the United States has dropped in 2006-2007, making refinancing more difficult. delinquencies and foreclosures began to increase considerably and credit agencies have begun to hit the wall. And what relationship with Australia? The problem lies partly in the manner in which the risk of lending money to these "high-risk borrowers" was managed. As is often the case, rather than assuming all the risks themselves, banks and credit brokers will "assemble" many credits together, then "secure". This simply means they create shares in the overall package, which can be sold to other investors on the basis of a fixed return on investment. These types of investments are generally relatively "safe" and are Market as such. As more and more people can not pay their credit - Seizures increased from 79% to reach 1.3 million in 2007 - investors worldwide, including some firms Australia, have begun to feel their pain. Others went bankrupt. The venerable U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns was bought by its competitor JP Morgan Chase for U.S. $ 10 per share compared to its value of U.S. $ 160 the previous year. heads of Merrill Lynch and Citigroup in the U.S. have resigned in response to the massive "writedowns" related to subprime. The problems have had a domino effect throughout the financial community. This resulted in a significant loss of confidence in the assurance that so-called investment "little risk" can be as "safe" than they seem. Firms that previously were willing to lend money have begun to reduce their loans or increase their interest rates. The companies that been exposed to the credit market, such as credit card companies or real estate investment firms with high levels of credit, suddenly found themselves unable to refinance their debts. Centro Properties Group (ASX: CNP), the second largest Australian owner of shopping centers, saw its share plunge after it announces the end of last year he had trouble refinancing $ 3.9 AUS billion debt.  Another side effect of the rising cost of credit was the fact that Australian banks have increased their interest rates on home loans faster than the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia), provoking the wrath of consumers. In September, Britain saw its first banking debacle since 1866, says The Economist, when the 5th largest credit agency, Northern Rock, said to have problems raising funds. The International Monetary Fund estimated this week that the potential loss resulting from the crisis could reach U.S. $ 945 billion. The American government was quick to cut interest rates during the previous year to try to stem the fall. U.S. rates have been reduced from 5.75% to 2.25% between September and March. Bad news keeps coming, with the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: A sign that the worst is yet to come. The crisis has pushed the U.S. to the brink of recession, while home sales and construction plunge, consumers stop consuming and banks lay off en masse - 34 000 in nine months until March, according to Bloomberg . U.S. President George W. Bush announced a package of U.S. $ 168 billion in February, was supposed to help restart the economy. Prices from crude oil and food to the above, however, were anticipated as erasing any potential gain. Glenn Stevens, Governor of our own central bank, the Reserve Bank of Australia, said recently that the fear of a total collapse of the U.S. financial system had somewhat attenuated during recent months. The risk of a crisis in style "sub-Prins" in Australia, at least from similar causes, is low. The RBA said that the closest equivalent of the funds' sub-prime credits in Australia are "non-conforming", which has participated for about 1% of all loans outstanding, compared with 15% share of U.S. sub-prime. Mr Stevens think the danger to the Australian economy lies in the area of inflation - ironically the symptoms of an evolving economy too quickly, rather than too slowly. |
This article is dated July 30. Now we are on September 15. What happened since? Here are
major events:
- The U.S. dollar is back (too quickly in the opinion of some) ... and of course that says strong U.S. dollar, "said FSU weak dollar. The Australian dollar closed at US80.77c yesterday, its lowest level for 1 year while there is still one month it was at US98c, some were betting on parity.
- the price of oil, gold plunged and key resources. The oil loses almost 35% in 1 month confirming that his climb was artificially directed by speculators. However, the decline in oil prices and commodity fears of a slowing world economy.
- the U.S. government takes control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a doubling once its national debt, never seen! The financial markets reacted strongly to the announcement with a rally of 5% which was only of short duration, plunging in griffres bear the day after.
- The RBA reduced the cash interest rate for the first time since December 2001 that the economy had slowed enough (and this despite the spread of record profits during the month of August, including online auction companies and mining ). Many are betting on further declines to come in 2-3 months.
- The last American victim is the prestigious broker Lehman Brothers is about to declare itself bankrupt. Merrill Lynch is about to be bought by Bank of America. Other victims are expected in the near future.
- In Australia, Babcock & Brown, Allco Finance Group and Challenger Financial Services investment banks are most affected, each of them having seen their share value drop considerably.
Strangely, the effect of the global crisis did not really feel in everyday life in Australia. It is so inconspicuous, you wonder if it's true. In the street, people are like, stores are always full, it is always easier to find work, piling contracts and wages are rising.
The cost of living seems to be more or less the same, except for gasoline has risen sharply. The price of fruit and vegetables in Australia has always strongly fluctuates, the country being self sufficient from that point of view, prices vary depending on the crop quality and climatic conditions. Last month, some fruits and vegetables were particularly cheap since a mild winter in Queensland has resulted in an over-production.
However if we take a look at inflation (since it is AC that speaks, inflation is the measure of the hause prices), the OECD believes that will be mastered more quickly than predicted RBA: Inflation in Australia is expected to average 4.1% this year and 3.1% next year, until returning to the target band of 2-3% of banks by the end of next year. At the same time, talk of inflation means nothing if we do not look rising wages and growth. Total revenue (including grants) has increased by 8.7% during the past year and this year Australian growth should be around 2.9%.
Only when connecting to its management platform STOCK we realize the reality of the crisis: most banks and investment firms are close to historical lows. Even the mining companies slowed down and the "super cycle" of commodities seems to have calm, at least temporarily.
short, the economic news has never been as exciting (and scary)!
[Each month, the same day, at the same time, the editorial 'bloggers write a post about a common topic. This month Laurent, Olivier , Noelia , Bergere, Bertrand , JVH , Hibiscus , Anne, Julien , Looange , V west , Jo Ann v , William , Catie , Nanou, Julie70 , Gazou , BlogBalso , Lydia , Lucile , Optensia , Joel , Linda, Julie , Ckankonvaou , Lodi, Mahie , Brigetoun , Renee , Mouton, Agnes , Laetitia , MissBrownie , Karmichette , Rikard , Dung, Peony Merlin, Sandrine , Adelaide are working on "The rise in prices." 'll Also read their views, and feel free to leave your comments!]
0 comments:
Post a Comment